Global sunflower production for the 2025-26 season is projected to climb 8% compared to the prior year, reaching 56.2 million metric tons. According to Apadana Keshte Iranian’s market review, higher production is anticipated in Russia, the European Union, Ukraine, Turkey, and the United States.

Ukraine’s Moderate Recovery

Ukraine’s sunflower output is expected to see a modest rebound from 2024-25 as growers switch acreage from grains to oilseeds. Even with this shift, overall production in Ukraine is still forecast to remain well below levels seen before the conflict. Russia is set to maintain its position as the top global producer, followed by Ukraine and the EU.

Export and Stock Outlook

Seed exports are predicted to stay nearly unchanged at 2.35 MMT this year, as both Russia and Ukraine are crushing a larger share of their harvests domestically. Ending global sunflower seed inventories for 2025-26 are expected to stand at 3.26 MMT, still under the five‑year average.

Global Crush and Oil Production

Worldwide crush volumes are forecast to rise by 4.1 MMT, reaching 51.8 MMT. Sunflower oil output in 2025-26 is expected to expand by 1.8 MMT to 21.9 MMT, driven by stronger processing in Ukraine, the EU, Russia, China, Turkey, and the U.S.

Regional Variations

Lower crush activity in Argentina and Kazakhstan, due to weaker production, will partially offset the global gains. Nevertheless, global sunflower oil exports are anticipated to grow by about 1 MMT to 13.7 MMT, with larger shipments from Ukraine, Russia, and Turkey. Import demand in China and India is forecast to reach 1.2 MMT and 3.2 MMT respectively.

Rising Consumption

Global sunflower oil usage is expected to expand 7% to 20.4 MMT in 2025-26, supported by ample supply and attractive pricing. Increased consumption is projected across major markets including India, China, and the EU. As supply and demand are expected to remain in balance, sunflower oil ending stocks are forecast at 2.4 MMT, roughly the same as the prior year.

U.S. Production Prospects

The final size of the 2025 U.S. sunflower harvest remains uncertain until later this fall. Early industry projections suggest production could reach 1.8 billion pounds, a 57% jump from last year, supported by an expansion of planted area from 720,800 acres to 1.07 million acres and trend‑line yields for both oil‑type and confection varieties.

Tight Stocks and Price Trends

On March 1, USDA reported total sunflower seed stocks at 564 million pounds, a 52% drop from the previous year. Based on current demand and expected output, ending stocks are projected to be minimal by the close of this marketing year, creating favorable pricing conditions through 2025-26. Apadana Keshte Iranian notes that price incentives may be offered to encourage early harvest and desiccation.

Market Drivers Ahead

Weather conditions in the coming months could significantly reshape these forecasts. With the smaller 2024 U.S. crop keeping old‑crop prices firm, premiums are likely to remain in place. Demand for birdfood is also set to pick up this month, while overall new‑crop price trends will hinge on upcoming demand developments and the eventual 2025 harvest performance.